Nobody knows exactly how much to bake before the first drop. After a few drops, you'll have enough information to make a much better estimate. Here's what to watch.
Drop one: the baseline
Whatever you sell in drop one is your baseline, and the only real mistake is baking so much you can't sell out. For your first drop, starting slightly smaller is safer than making too much.
The number to write down isn't just total sold — it's how fast. Sold out in ten minutes, two hours, or never is three different businesses.
Drop two: look for patterns
Run the same menu again. Same items, maybe 20 to 30 percent more of whatever vanished first. Now you learn the shape of your demand: does the same crowd come back? Does the same item sell out first each time? Does another consistently have stock left?
Drop three: change one thing
By drop three you know your baseline and your patterns, so you get to change one thing. One, not three: change everything at once and you learn nothing.
- If you've sold out within minutes twice, try raising the price by 10 to 15 percent.
- If one item consistently sells first, make more of it next time.
- If everything sells at a comfortable pace, increase overall quantity slightly.
The waitlist is free market research
When an item sells out on OurCakewalk, customers can leave their number for a restock text. That waitlist count is the purest demand signal you'll ever get — it's people who tried to give you money and couldn't. Three people waitlisted for macarons is not a rounding error; it's twelve more macarons next week.
When the answer is "don't grow"
One more honest thing: some of the best home bakeries plateau on purpose. Growth doesn't have to be the goal. If 30 boxes a week fits your life and gives you the income you want, that's a perfectly good place to stay.
